Data Sources for COVID-19 Analysis in England

Since the early Number 10 Downing Street press conferences, the data available to analyze the progression of the COVID-19 epidemic in the UK has become somewhat fragmented. This is an overview of the major sources of data.

This shows data for testing, cases, healthcare, and deaths, updated daily.

More detail is shown on each data set, for example cases:

which is broken down by Nation, Region, Upper Tier Local Authority (‘UTLAs’ / counties) and Lower Tier Local Authorities (‘LTLAs’ / districts). Note that some councils, such as Leicester, are Unitary Authorities, and are both UTLAs and LTLAs and their data is disclosed in both UTLA and LTLA data sets. Currently, this only shows the latest data, and cases per 100,000 people (making it easier to compare different sized locations).

This data is shown as a map at Middle Layer Super Output Area (‘MSOA’) level (although the colour bar makes interpretation a little difficult) and shows cases per week. The mean population of a MSOA is around 7,200 people, so the key is not very useful.

Data for UTLAs and LTLAs used to be reported by specimen date, but it is not clear where these data are now available.

Public Health England Surveillance Reports

Public Health England (‘PHE’) produce a COVID-19 surveillance report each week. This now shows a list of watchlist local authorities.

These data are shown on a

together with a chart of the number of English cases per week

and the history of the highest rated UTLAs

There is also a report of the number of ‘incidents’ (what are colloquially described as outbreaks) and where they originate from.

Searchable SAGE (Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies) Minutes on COVID-19

The early minutes of SAGE (the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies) were searchable:

However, later minutes are not.

So, if you are searching for, say “asymptomatic transmission”, you won’t find anything. Which is odd, beacuase the SAGE meeting where this was first mooted, on 28 January, is searchable (the documents listed do not link to SAGE minutes). Or maybe it does not search within the documents themselves.

So I have OCR’d the minutes and they are listed at the end of this page.

Spoiler: the phrase ‘asymptomatic transmission’ is mentioned in SAGE minutes

The minutes are available here:

SAGE minutes to meeting 41 (11 June) are on the next page

Top Local Authorities for COVID-19 Positive Tests

Public Health England have tonight (2 July 2020) released data for the total number of people who have positive COVID-19 results at a local authority level. The data is at Critically, these include both Pillar 1 (NHS and PHE labs) and Pillar 2 (NHS Test & Trace commercial labs) data.

Here are the cumulative totals for upper tier local authorities ranked from top to bottom ranked by rate (i.e. controlling for population). Leicester is top, followed by Oldham, Barnsley, and Bradford. Note these are the cumulative totals, which doesn’t necessarily mean that there are current outbreaks there.

And here is the data for lower tier local authorities. Leicester (a unitary authority) still top, followed by Ashford, Barrow-in-Furness, and Preston.

Public Health England should be applauded for releasing this data, which will enable us to be far more informed about the epidemiology of the disease at a local level.

Spatial Transmission Models PowerPoint Slides presented at EURO2019 (30th European Conference on Opeartional Research), Dublin

These are the slides for my presentation at the 30th European Conference on Operational Research based on my Risk Analysis paper. The paper is available to download here.